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San Gold Corporation - Short Stock Positions Analysis

San Gold Corporation - Short Stock Positions Analysis

Short Stock Positions Analysis as of March 10, 2014

For more information about how short sales work, please visit the following page: Short Stock Positions - How Short Sales Work and Where To Find Short Interest Data.

If you would like to know how I determine if a short squeeze is likely, I recommend you to read the article about shorting a stock.

Calculating the Short Interest (%)

As I have determined that the average short interest range is 2% to 3%1, I now want to calculate the company's short interest in order to see if a short squeeze is likely, or not.

Report Date  Shares Issued  Shares Short  Shorts Change  Shorts Change %  Short Interest % 
2014-02-28  373,390,981  3,658,200  +1,149,200  +45,8%  0.98% 
2014-02-15  373,390,981  2,509,000  0%  0.67% 

My Commentary and Conclusion Regarding this Short Interest Calculation

According to the latest short interest report, the total shares short increased by 45.8%, which implies that Mr. Market is more certain that the company's stock price will decline - compared to the previous short interest report. However, the company's short interest is still smaller than 2%. Therefore, I conclude that it is not likely that a short squeeze will happen anytime soon.

Calculating the Short Interest as % of the Float

The outcome of this ratio will be higher than the outcome of the 'standard' short interest calculated above, as the same amount of shares short are now divided by a smaller amount of shares, i.e. only those shares which are available for trading. Therefore, I do not believe a short squeeze is likely when this ratio will have an outcome slightly higher than the average 'standard' short interest range of 2% to 3%.

Report Date  Shares Short  Float2  Shorts as % of the Float 
2014-02-28  3,658,200  363,625,619  1.01% 
2014-02-15  2,509,000  363,625,619  0.69% 

My Commentary and Conclusion Regarding this Short Interest as % of the Float Calculation

As you can see in the table above, the company's short interest as percentage of the float is smaller than 2%. Therefore, I conclude that it is not likely that a short squeeze will happen anytime soon.

Calculating the Short Interest Ratio

 

 

As I concluded that the average short interest ratio range is 4 to 61, I now want to calculate the company's short interest ratio in order to see if a short squeeze is likely, or not.

Report Date  Shares Short  Average Trading Volume (MA 30)3  Short Interest Ratio  Short Interest Ratio % Change 
2014-02-28  3,658,200  2,143,493  1.87  +14.0% 
2014-02-15  2,509,000  1,532,710  1.64  NA 

My Commentary and Conclusion Regarding this Short Interest Ratio Calculation

According to the latest short interest report, the short interest ratio increased by 14%, which implies that it will take 0.23 extra days to buy back all of the shorted shares at the stock’s average daily trading volume - compared to the previous short interest report. However, the company's short interest is still smaller than 4. Therefore, I conclude that it is not likely that a short squeeze will happen anytime soon.

My Commentary and Conclusion Regarding this Short Stock Positions Analysis

Overall, I do not believe it's likely that a short squeeze will happen anytime soon, as the outcome of all three indicators for measuring the level of short interest in the company are below the average short interest range.

 

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Note: If you would like to verify if this short interest data is still accurate, you can visit the company's webpage at Stockwatch.com: http://www.stockwatch.com/Analytics/Shorts.aspx?action=go&symbol=SGR&region=C.

 

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1 For more information about how I determine if a short squeeze is likely, I recommend you to read the article about shorting a stock.

2 To find out how I calculated the float, I refer you to the Stock Chart and Share Statistics page.

3 The average trading volume on the report date can be found in the interactive chart from FreeStockCharts.com.

About Jeroen Snoeks

Jeroen Snoeks - UndervaluedEquity.com

Jeroen Snoeks is the founder of UndervaluedEquity.com, a website for investors passionate about investing in undervalued stocks. Through UndervaluedEquity.com, he shares his experience and knowledge and will soon reveal his personal stock portfolio.


 
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